In October 2025, Valve released a major CS2 update , introducing a forging system for knives and gloves (the Trade Escalation Contract expansion). Players could trade five Secret-grade weapon skins for valuable knives, causing the skin market value to plummet by over $2 billion. This article will provide a detailed analysis of how this system works, its performance, and player recommendations.
Valve has just released the October update for Counter-Strike 2. This update not only reintroduces the highly anticipated “Counter-Loot” mode, but also makes some subtle but crucial adjustments to the skin economy. One key change is that players can now forge five red Secret-level weapon skins directly into high-end knives and gloves through Trade Up Contract.
Detailed Explanation of the Forging Mechanism in CS2 Update
Players can access the “Trade Up Contract” interface in their inventory. Currently, it supports Secret-grade skins.
Investing five regular Secret skins in a trade has a chance of receiving a regular knife or glove. If you invest in five StatTrak™ secret skins, your crafted item will automatically have the StatTrak™ feature.
The system will randomly select the corresponding knife or glove from the set of the skin you use. Therefore, if you use secret skins from different sets, the final set will also be randomized.
Please note that crafted knives or gloves cannot be traded or resold immediately; if you use an input skin obtained through trading, the item will trigger a seven-day trading cooldown period.
Market Reaction and Data Analysis: Skin Economy Shakes Up
This CS2 update was like a tidal wave, instantly turbulent in the skin trading market:
Before the update, the total value of the Counter-Strike 2 skin market reached an all-time high, exceeding $6 billion.
After the update, industry analysts estimate that the total market value quickly plummeted to approximately $4.1 to $4.2 billion, wiping out nearly $2 billion in a short period of time.
Related reports indicate that “knife and glove prices plummeted by 20% to 50% on the first day.”
At the same time, the price of secret-level skins, which fuel crafting, rose, prompting players to stockpile desired skins. For example:
“The price of a brand new Gut Knife | Fade has dropped from approximately $301 to $159, a drop of nearly 55%.”
This dual trend—the plummeting price of high-end knives and the rising price of mid-range covert skins—reflects a shift in market logic: “collapsing rarity + surging demand for forging.”
Players and the market need to reposition themselves.
For players, this means the path to obtaining top-tier knives has shifted from a heavy reliance on loot boxes and speculation to a more controlled forging process. While selecting a precise finished product isn’t possible, choosing a suitable set and accumulating skin investments can increase the probability of obtaining the desired item.
At the same time, be mindful of risks: forging results are random, rising covert skin prices increase costs, and the increased supply of forged knives on the market may reduce their value.
For collectors and investors, this update represents an adjustment to market scarcity. The traditionally stable value of ultra-rare knives is being challenged, necessitating a reassessment of their value as an asset class.
From a developer’s perspective, this change may be driven by regulatory pressure, improving market liquidity, and mitigating the risk of a skin economy bubble. Enabling crafting not only gives more players access to high-end gear but also, to a certain extent, curbs the exorbitant prices of a few top-tier items.
In summary, this CS2 update goes far beyond simple gameplay changes; it represents a profound overhaul of the skin economy. To profit or maintain the value of their assets in this new environment, players must thoroughly understand the crafting mechanics and market dynamics, and craft and trade them rationally. Skin prices, rare item supply, and player behavior are expected to continue to fluctuate significantly in the coming weeks, so all CS2 players and collectors should remain closely monitored.